EMMY RACE BREAKDOWN:

Drama Series may be the easiest category to predict in the whole darn ceremony. For starters, Succession racked up the most Emmy nominations of any series (with a baffling 25 nods) and broke the record for the most acting nominations received in a single year. It also swept the 4 major guilds (SAG, WGA, DGA, PGA), which is a feat only Season 3 of Mad Men and Season 5 of Breaking Bad were able to accomplish. Both went on to win Drama Series. Succession also won the top prize at the biggest critics associations (HCA, TCA, and CCA). Plus, it's proven to be loved by the Television Academy, as it's already won series for its equally acclaimed second season. Lastly, Succession just won Drama Casting at the Creative Arts Emmys, which correlates somewhat well with Drama Series. However, it's rare for a show to win casting more than once (since it often feels like you're rewarding someone for casting the same people multiple times), so Succession doing so is yet another show of strength. Succession just feels too big to fail, and honestly? In my humble opinion, it shouldn’t.

With all that being said, it’s not impossible for Succession to lose. This category is full of strong, worthy contenders, and Euphoria got a lot of nominations too! The South Korean sensation Squid Game could pull an upset. It’s the most well-seen of the shows in its category, and its cultural impact combined with a killer narrative could propel it to victory. However, Squid Game failing to win the top prize at any major awards body over Succession back when its hype was at its peak makes me skeptical of its chances. It’s not as huge as it used to be, and personally, it seems unlikely that it would win now. Never say never, though! Squid Game just picked up 4 Creative Arts Emmys (Production Design, Stunt Performance, Visual Effects, and Guest Actress). It is also very strong in Directing and Lead Actor (and could easily upset in Supporting Actress), so there is a path to a series win should it win any of those categories.

AppleTV+ hit Severance tied Squid Game Emmy nominations-wise, with each receiving 14, but the buzz for the former may be stronger. It was released later, is likely fresher in voters’ minds (especially for those who decided to catch up), has universal acclaim, and ended on a very high note. Plus, while there is virtually no overlap between the HCA and the Emmys, the near sweep Severance received in the award’s streaming division over Squid Game, Ozark, and Stranger Things could be a barometer of things to come. The main thing in Severance’s way is the fact that it’s difficult to see it winning any Emmys above the line outside of Directing. However, should it manage to take Writing from Succession, a win would be likely.

The final freshman series nominated is Yellowjackets, which was the only drama series to get multiple writing nominations. It only got 7 Emmy nominations, but scored key nominations in acting, writing, directing, and casting. I’m not sure I buy Yellowjackets winning series without any below the line support, but it’s absolutely a contender to look out for in future seasons. Melanie Lynskey and Christina Ricci are also two dark horses to seriously look out for in their respective categories.

Speaking of dark horses, I wouldn’t entirely count out Better Call Saul to win this category. It only managed 7 Emmy nominations (missing Directing and Casting), but the show has never been bigger than it is right now. Its explosive final episodes aired during Emmy voting, and that definitely can’t hurt. While the Emmys have never given Better Call Saul a win in any category, the conversation about it this year just feels different. There’s a lot of passion for it at the moment, and who knows? Maybe voters caught up after the nominations were announced and fell in love with its excellent final season. It also tied with Succession at the HCAs for Best Cable Series - Drama, so if nothing else, it has that! I’m not currently predicting Better Call Saul to win any of its above the line nominations, but if it won any combination Actor, Supporting Actress, or Writing, that could foretell a potential win in the top category.

The final season of Ozark was quite well-received (aside from the ending). It obtained 13 Emmy nominations this year and finally got another acting nod (Tom Pelphrey in Guest Actor) outside of its main trio. It doesn’t seem quite as strong as it was for its most acclaimed season, Season 3, but the final season narrative could possibly propel it to victory. However, what makes me doubt this is its lack of buzz and its slump from last season. In season 3, the show received 2 directing nominations, 3 writing nominations, and 2 editing nominations. However, despite this season still submitting multiple episodes for each category, Ozark’s final season only got one directing nomination and one writing nomination, missing editing entirely. It seems like the show may not be as beloved by the Television Academy as it was in its prime. And even when it was, Ozark’s 3rd season still wound up losing to Succession. With all that in mind, I don’t think Ozark being in its final season will help it win series. However, since it is the last chance voters have to award Jason Bateman, Laura Linney, and Julia Garner for their work on the show, their chances to win should improve.

The second-most nominated drama series this year is Euphoria, which received a whopping 18 nominations. It was also nominated by 10 branches of the Television Academy, the most out of any drama series (yes, including Succession). Because of this, Euphoria has the potential to win the most awards of the night. It's already got a leg up on its competition, as it won 5 Creative Arts Emmys (Editing, Guest Actor, Cinematography, Makeup, and Choreography). However, the fact that it missed crucial nominations for its writing and directing hurts its chances at winning series.

Like Euphoria, Stranger Things missed nominations for writing and directing. Unlike Euphoria, it wasn’t nominated by the acting branch either. In fact, the only nomination Stranger Things received above the line was Best Drama Series. While the show is very popular, I don’t think it’s beloved enough by the Television Academy to pull off a win.

Projected Rankings:

1. Succession

2. Severance

3. Squid Game

4. Euphoria

5. Better Call Saul

6. Ozark

7. Yellowjackets

8. Stranger Things

Will Win: Succession

Could Win: Severance

Should Win: Succession