EMMY RACE BREAKDOWN:

Drama Supporting Actress is, like all of the drama acting categories, insanely competitive. However, what sets it apart is the fact that you can make a very compelling argument for every nominee here to win (besides one). There’s not a clear frontrunner, per se, as most of these actresses are untested against one another. With all that in mind, here is my breakdown of each of their chances.

While I did say there was no clear frontrunner, I would be lying if I said I haven’t had Julia Garner winning this category for quite some time. Not only has she won twice before and never been baitier (“Sanctified” was just a pitch-perfect showcase of her acting prowess), but this is the final chance the Television Academy has to award her. Plus, this was the first year the acting branch recognized an Ozark castmate outside of the main trio. While Tom Pelphrey did not end up winning Guest Actor, the nomination was still absolutely a win. Julia Garner just makes too much sense for me to not predict to win.

Despite my confidence in Julia Garner, I do definitely think an upset could be possible.

Jung Ho-yeon, for instance, is very tempting for me to predict. She won SAG with a supporting performance, beating out previous SAG winner Jennifer Aniston and Sarah Snook, her direct competition. Often, when a supporting performance wins SAG, they win the Emmy. Plus, her costar Lee Yoo-mi just won Guest Actress for the episode “Gganbu,” which also happens to be Jung’s episode submission. Lee’s character is pivotal to Jung’s storyline in that episode and almost exclusively shares scenes with her. While Lee is the heart and soul of the episode, Jung matches her beat for beat. Despite portraying one of the most stoic characters on Squid Game, “Gganbu” is an excellent showcase of her (and her character Kang Sae-byeok’s) emotional side. She has the role, she has the show, and she has the acclaim to potentially upset.

Someone who I’m fairly confident won’t upset is J. Smith-Cameron. Don’t get me wrong: Smith-Cameron is great in her role as the prudent, calculating Gerri. Her episode submission is excellent, as most of Gerri’s standout moments this season (like her telling off Logan) come from “The Disruption.” Alas, she has a far smaller role in Succession than every other nominee has in their show. She’s also against her costar Sarah Snook, who has a core role on the show and more accolades. I would be truly shocked if her name was read next Monday, but I’m happy she got her first nomination.

Sarah Snook, on the other hand, absolutely could take this. Snook has always been fantastic as the resident Roy prima-donna Shiv Roy, but she is especially exceptional in Succession’s 3rd season. She has solidified herself as the queen of facial expressions, especially with her glances. Snook’s episode submission, “Chiantishire,” manages to give her character a rare moment of vulnerability, but then immediately retracts any fleeting sympathy you may have felt for her by showing off just how cruel and manipulative Shiv can be. All of this is handled with grace thanks to Snook’s talent. She undeniably has the performance to win, but unfortunately, quite a few things stand in her way. Snook losing to Jung Hoyeon at SAG is quite a big deal, seeing as Succession took home Drama Ensemble and she faced no internal competition from her show. She’s also lost the Supporting Actress Emmy to Julia Garner before in 2020. What may be even more damning is the nature of the character Snook plays. Shiv is phenomenally well-written, but she’s also one of the most hated characters in the Succession (which says quite a lot, as practically every character is horrendous in some shape or form). The Television Academy hasn’t rewarded an actress who plays a character quite as unlikable as Shiv in quite some time. Fortunately, there is a chance that thanks to Succession’s strength, particularly with actors (who are the only ones that vote in this category), coupled with her own superb performance, Snook could manage a win here.

Sydney Sweeney is another actress who could benefit from the combination of a strong show and a baity performance. Euphoria is currently tied for the most Creative Arts Emmys of the year. While only one of its awards was voted on by the same people who vote on this category, it does show a trend of widespread support for Sweeney’s show. Her episode submission is “Ruminations: Big and Little Bullys,” which features what may be the most popular scene in Euphoria’s second season. If you were on Twitter at all when Euphoria was airing, I guarantee you’ve seen the scene of Cassie breaking down in the bathroom. While her performance is great and a highlight of Euphoria’s rocky second season, I just don’t think she will win in a lineup this competitive. The hype for her performance has died down quite a lot by now, and it just doesn’t feel like many are clamoring for her to win this category. However, she did get another Emmy nomination for The White Lotus this year, so there’s clearly support from the acting branch for her as a performer.

Patricia Arquette is an even clearer Television Academy favorite, as she currently has 5 Emmy nominations and 2 wins. She portrays the main antagonist of Severance, Harmony Cobel. In most episodes of the show, she’s eerily stoic and nonchalant. However, in her episode submission “What’s for Dinner?”, she lets that cold demeanor drop after receiving devastating news. Her Emmy clip will surely be Harmony’s particularly entertaining meltdown in her car. While Arquette has the industry respect to win, I don’t think she has the passion. She is not frequently cited as a standout of her show the way virtually every other nominee (Smith-Cameron notwithstanding) is. In a less crowded category, I could see her veteran status propelling her to win, but I doubt it happens here.

Like Arquette, Christina Ricci plays the closest thing Yellowjackets has to an antagonist. Unlike Arquette, Ricci is the definition of a scene stealer as the upbeat and deeply unsettling Misty. Her episode submission “Sic Transit Gloria Mundi” may not feature her absolute best work on the show, but it’s still a sublime pick. Ricci devours an already juicy role and has a fairly strong narrative to win. She’s been doing incredible work for decades yet has never won an industry award. Yellowjackets also did fairly well nominations-wise, as it received nods in every key category and was the only drama series nominee that got two of its episodes recognized in writing. While each nomination by itself doesn’t mean a whole lot due to the fact that different branches vote for different categories, as a whole they show a trend of passion for Yellowjackets. It missed out on some nominations below the line, but the only real snubs were editing and sound. Due to all of these factors, I think Christina Ricci has a strong shot to win this category.

Last but not least, Rhea Seehorn has finally gotten a nomination for Better Call Saul after doing 6 seasons of exceptional work. There’s a lot of clamoring to give her an Emmy, perhaps more so than for any other nominee. I’m not sure I entirely buy a win after she was snubbed for so long, but it’s happened before: Annie Murphy and Dan Levy both won for Schitt’s Creek’s 6th season on their first nomination. However, Schitt’s Creek was a show that only began getting Emmy recognition for its 5th season. It exploded in nominations and wins for its final season, pulling off a clean sweep of every above the line category. Better Call Saul, on the other hand, has been consistently nominated since its 1st season and there’s little indication nominations-wise that it’s any stronger this season. Seehorn is more than worthy of a win, though. Her episode submission (which she also happened to direct) “Hit and Run” features incredible scenes that showcase both Kim’s more devious side and her vulnerability. Better Call Saul’s final batch of episodes also happened to air during Emmy voting, which featured career-best material from Seehorn. It’s uncertain how much (or if at all) this will affect Better Call Saul’s winning chances in any category, but it certainly cannot hurt.

Projected Rankings:

1. Julia Garner - Ozark

2. Jung Ho-yeon - Squid Game

3. Sarah Snook - Succession

4. Christina Ricci - Yellowjackets

5. Rhea Seehorn - Better Call Saul

6. Sydney Sweeney - Euphoria

7. Patricia Arquette - Severance

8. J. Smith-Cameron - Succession

Will Win: Julia Garner

Could Win: Jung Ho-yeon

Should Win: Sarah Snook