The State of the 2025 Drama Emmys Race

By Amy Kim

A few days ago, I decided to cover the 2025 Emmys race for Comedy Series. However, while most of the shows in contention for the nomination had already premiered, this is not the case for this category. In fact, I think all of the top 3 shows in contention for the win come out in 2025. But while it is tougher to discuss the race in relation to precursors or quality, almost every contender has previous seasons that were established as Emmy contenders. 

The way I see it, the three shows most likely to win Best Drama Series are The White Lotus, The Last of Us, and Severance. I would rank The White Lotus ahead of the rest due to two reasons: 1) it has already won a Series prize at the Emmys and 2) it is the most likely to be well-received. The first season of The White Lotus practically swept the Miniseries awards, nabbing a win in every above-the-line category it was nominated in! The second season of The White Lotus did lose to Succession, but practically every returning show in contention here can claim this. When it competed at the winter guilds in Succession-less fields, it was able to win SAG Ensemble, PGA, and WGA — only losing the DGA to Barry out of the main four guilds. I have faith in Mike White’s ability to deliver another season of riveting television after his success with the first two seasons. I would also argue that The White Lotus Season 2 was the runner-up in Best Drama Series to Succession because of its wins for Best Drama Casting and Best Drama Supporting Actress. As long as The White Lotus season 3 retains the critical reception of its first two seasons, I will keep it as the frontrunner.

That being said, if The Last of Us’s second season is as much of a sensation as its first, it can absolutely threaten The White Lotus. Out of every show on this list, I only think Squid Game will be more watched. And between the two, I would argue The Last of Us is even more beloved by audiences. It is a bona fide tech juggernaut, winning 8 Creative Arts Emmys for its first season. It was also able to upset Succession at DGA and for SAG Drama Actor, though those wins can partially be attributed to Succession votesplitting. While I do believe The White Lotus Season 2 was the runner-up to Succession Season 4, there is an argument to be made that #2 was actually The Last of Us. My main concern with The Last of Us is that audience reception for this season will be much worse than for the first. The game the second season is based on is notably divisive among players despite having even better critical reception than its predecessor! However, if the second season does not cover the events of the story that were a point of contention for players and saves them for Season 3 like many are speculating, this may be avoided.

Rounding out the top 3 is Severance Season 2, which I have been eagerly anticipating since 2022. I shall disclose immediately that Severance is already one of my favorite shows, so prepare for an intense amount of bias. While the first season failed to win any above-the-line Emmys, it was competing against both Succession and Squid Game. It did lose SAG Ensemble and PGA to The White Lotus and (more embarrassingly) DGA to Euphoria, but the season did manage to land a WGA win. I believe that if the second season of Severance is not only good but outright better than the first season, it can use its established passion from writers as a leaping off point to be in contention for the win. Recall Succession winning the writing Emmy in season 1 only to massively improve in season 2 and become an Emmys juggernaut. That being said, this is a massive if due to the fact that Severance has been in production so long and reportedly had creative issues onset. I hope for the best regarding Severance, but I do think it needs a high 80s Metacritic score in order to be in contention for the win in a way The White Lotus and The Last of Us don’t. 

Andor’s second season is also releasing in 2025, but while I don’t see it being competitive for the Series win due to its failure to win anything significant at the Emmys or at winter precursors for its first season, I also have no reason to doubt its quality or strength as a contender. As long as it maintains the quality of its first season, I think nominations in Series and Writing are safe, while Directing can happen as long as The Last of Us doesn’t submit multiple episodes. 

The final returning Emmy contender releasing in 2025 is Yellowjackets Season 3, but I actually have very little confidence in this season. While the first season of Yellowjackets was thrilling and deservedly got above-the-line nominations across the board, I found the second to have much sloppier writing. Though the critical reception was similar for both seasons, I would say its decline was reflected accurately by the Emmys, as it went from 7 Emmy nominations to 3. Though its second season was still nominated for Best Drama Series, the writing of its season finale does not give me hope that its third season will rebound in quality. If its audience reception improves from Season 2, it could retain a slot in Best Drama Series. But if it doesn’t, I feel good about keeping Yellowjackets out of this stacked field.

There are two new shows releasing in 2025 that have caught my eye. Étoile, a ballet dramedy from the creators of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel starring Luke Kirby, could be Amazon’s big push if it releases in time. Your Friends and Neighbors, meanwhile, is from the creator of Warrior and stars Jon Hamm as a recently fired hedge fund manager and divorcee who steals from his affluent neighbors. Yet what makes both shows interesting to me is the fact that each have had a second season ordered before their first season has even premiered, which is a clear vote of confidence to me. Of the two, I currently have Your Friends and Neighbors in my Drama Series lineup, but that is largely because it has a release date.

There may be other shows releasing in 2025 that I overlooked, but the ones I covered have the biggest Emmy potential in my opinion. There are a handful of 2024 seasons competing, but I maintain that most of them are fighting for the last few slots in the category. 

Slow Horses Season 4 is the exception, and the only 2024 season I would consider locked at the moment. Its unexpected surge for its third season culminated in an Emmy win for writing, upsetting the ultimate Drama Series winner Shōgun. Its fourth season has been met with even more love from precursors; while the third season’s breakout nomination was a Golden Globe nod for Gary Oldman in Drama Actor, its latest season has garnered Golden Globe nods in Drama Series, Drama Actor, and Drama Supporting and a Critics’ Choice nod in Drama Series. I suspect this ascent will only continue. If Slow Horses wins WGA, it will continue to pose a significant threat in Writing at the Emmys. While I am a bit skeptical of its chances of beating a dominant show like The White Lotus in Writing, if it emerges as the frontrunner there, it also poses a chance at winning Best Drama Series.

Another show that I believe will surge for its subsequent season is The Diplomat Season 2. It only managed a Drama Actress nomination for Keri Russell at the Emmys for its entertaining but oddly-paced first season, but I attribute this underwhelming performance largely to the fact that this season was released just over a month before the Emmys cutoff. After all, The Diplomat proceeded to get nominations across the board at the winter precursors, only missing SAG Ensemble and DGA. Its second season is tighter and even more gripping, and so far has landed nominations for Best Series, Best Actress for Keri Russell, and Best Supporting Actress for Allison Janney at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice. I like its odds at getting SAG Ensemble this year, but even if it doesn’t, I think as long as it retains its nominations at PGA and WGA, The Diplomat Season 2 can do better than its predecessor and be somewhat safe in Drama Series. 

On the other hand, I expect Squid Game Season 2 to fall off a fair amount. Critically, the show is seen as a slight step down from its iconic first season (61 vs 69 on Metacritic). For audiences, though, I think the decrease in quality is more pronounced. I personally wasn’t a big fan of either season, but I am still confident it gets into this lineup. Squid Game Season 2 will inevitably be reported by Netflix as having broken viewing records, and as the platform’s #1 priority, it will certainly get into Best Drama Series. Plus, out of every contender this year that previously faced off against Succession, its first season undoubtedly did the best; Season 1 won Best Actor and Best Directing at the Emmys, Best Actor and Best Actress at SAG, and Best Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes. I find it hard to believe that such a juggernaut would outright miss Best Drama Series, even if Season 2 was disappointing to a fair amount of people. That being said, I think snubs in Best Actor and Best Writing are possible, while the only “new” Squid Game nomination in play at the moment is Best Guest Actor for a delightfully unhinged Gong Yoo. And unless Squid Game Season 2 wins SAG Ensemble or PGA, both of which feel unlikely given Shōgun’s domination, I will also write this off for the Best Drama Series win. 

There are a handful of other contenders this year that I am keeping an eye on. The exceptional Bad Sisters Season 1 landed Emmy nominations for Actress, Writing, Directing, and Casting, but just missed out on Best Drama Series. After that performance, I assumed that its subsequent season would be able to get over the edge and land a Series nomination. However, the second season of Bad Sisters seems to have noticeably less passion than the first. If it gets a WGA nomination or SAG Ensemble, I will reconsider it. But with such a competitive field, I don’t feel good about having it in. 

House of the Dragon Season 1 did earn a Drama Series nomination at the Emmys for its first season, but the audience reception to its second season has been significantly worse — especially with its unsatisfying finale. I enjoyed the season for the most part, but I do not think its technical elements will be enough to push it into Series this year when The Last of Us, Severance, and Squid Game all seem much stronger. I won’t count a poor major guild performance against House of the Dragon since it blanked for its first season, but missing Drama Series at the Golden Globes for Season 2 when it won that category for Season 1 feels especially telling. Perhaps anything Game of Thrones-related is too big to fail. But despite incorrectly predicting Season 1 to miss Drama Series, I have no qualms with doing the same for Season 2.

Another show I was expecting to show up more at winter precursors was Presumed Innocent, which blanked at Critics' Choice and only landed one nomination for Jake Gyllenhaal at the Golden Globes. Though it is a bona fide viewership success for AppleTV+, I am unsure of how much staying power it will have when AppleTV+ has a lot of Drama Series contenders on its plate.

Before it landed Best Drama Series nominations at Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes, I had never heard of The Day of the Jackal. Truth be told, I still only vaguely know what it’s about. I will believe a Peacock show breaking in majorly with the Emmys when I see it, but if it manages to show up at winter guilds, I might slot it in. 

Finally, Black Doves is a Keira Knightley spy thriller that has been doing solid numbers on Netflix. I would consider putting this in if The Diplomat and Slow Horses weren’t also in contention. Both Black Doves Season 1 and The Diplomat Season 2 are 6-episode Netflix thrillers with a political edge led by a fantastic actress, but The Diplomat has the advantage of being a more established show and more easily digestible. Black Doves has even more in common with Slow Horses, as both shows are essentially spy thrillers, but Slow Horses is far more critically acclaimed and has an Emmy win for writing behind it. Because Black Doves is so similar to these two strong shows in premise and appeal, I personally cannot see it getting into Drama Series. Keira Knightley seems like a very likely nomination, though.

At the end of the day, the race in Drama Series is quite scattered because we are still awaiting critical reception for almost half of the contenders. Nevertheless, this is my current Drama Series lineup: