The State of the 2025 Miniseries Emmys Race

To be entirely honest, I held off on making this article for months due to how few miniseries were actually in contention for this nomination. However, a series race that seemed like an easy win for The Penguin one month ago continues to have a clear frontrunner… Stephen Graham’s sensation Adolescence. But while the slate is still somewhat weak this year, there are still a handful of shows that could realistically get Emmy nominations. Let’s break them down!

Adolescence

The Penguin

I would like to preface this segment by saying I adore The Penguin and would personally vote for it over Adolescence. Until the arrival of Adolescence, The Penguin seemed like an obvious frontrunner. Its lead Colin Farrell swept against incumbent Emmy winner Richard Gadd. It landed a WGA win despite not being a particularly writerly show. It was the only miniseries from this cycle to earn nominations at CC, GG, PGA, DGA, SAG, and WGA. In a weak field, that would be enough to secure a series win. Alas, since this is no longer a weak field, The Penguin has two key red flags that may prevent it from winning. For one, The Penguin is a comic book adaptation. Yes, Watchmen won several years ago, but it also felt more politically relevant and carried more immediate prestige than a show about a goofy Batman villain. Its popularity, phenomenal acting, and gripping writing elevates it greatly above that admittedly dismissive description. However, the identity of The Penguin remains its key hindrance from winning the top prize. The fact that it has a number of comparisons with The Sopranos has been excellent for convincing audiences that this show is worth your time. But at the end of the day, it’s hard to see a variant of The Sopranos set in Gotham as the more compelling choice over an original narrative about the dangers of incel culture and the tragedies it causes, told through the perspective of four different characters. 

Disclaimer

Here is where the Miniseries race gets tricky. While The Penguin and Adolescence are all but locked for the series nomination, no other show seems like a clear nominee. Disclaimer is a widely-predicted show from Oscar winner Alfonso Cuarón, with series nominations at GG, CC, SAG, and DGA. Out of any show in contention, its winter precursor haul is perhaps the second most impressive on paper. But in my opinion, its misses are inexplicable if this is a top contender. WGA was a fairly weak field to break into with incumbent Miniseries Writing winner Baby Reindeer being ineligible. A miss here indicates that it lacks passion from writers and is unlikely to be a high-brow push. PGA is another strange miss when it was an expensive, high-profile miniseries that was widely predicted to get in. Two of the most shocking snubs in this category in recent memory—Maid and Black Bird—were previously indicated by a PGA miss despite landing GG and CC nods. Though you can argue Disclaimer has done better than both since neither show was able to get a DGA nomination, I do think this show is on much shakier ground than most people believe. 

Say Nothing

Presumed Innocent

Another show whose main claim to fame is a Miniseries WGA nomination is Presumed Innocent. However, what is working against Presumed Innocent is the fact that it ran as a Drama Series nearly everywhere else at winter precursors and failed to secure a nomination anywhere beyond Jake Gyllenhaal at the Golden Globes. While a show like Say Nothing was able to accrue buzz as one of the few miniseries from this cycle competing in the winter precursors, Presumed Innocent had to deal with the fact that not even pundits were sure where it was being campaigned. Had it campaigned as a Miniseries from the beginning and been able to land more nominations, I might have it over Say Nothing. But at this point, it just feels like any push for it is too little, too late. 

Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Back when Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story seemed like Netflix’s #1 push and Javier Bardem was the frontrunner in Miniseries Supporting Actor, I tentatively had this show in my series lineup. But with Adolescence and Owen Cooper stealing its thunder in both regards, I can no longer overlook the show’s serious red flags. Though its predecessor was a smash hit at the Emmys, landing 13 nominations and 1 win for Niecy Nash-Betts, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story has underperformed in practically every regard. Aside from the Golden Globes, where it received nominations in Best Miniseries, Best Miniseries Actor for Cooper Koch, and Best Supporting Actor for Javier Bardem (who was also nominated at SAG for the turn), it has been noticeably absent from winter precursors. The show was unable to get nominations at any of WGA, DGA, or PGA. The DGA miss is excusable since it was competing in the Drama category, and the WGA miss makes sense given its lack of critical acclaim and poor writing. But missing PGA as a highly-viewed Netflix miniseries feels damning. Even the flop that was All the Light We Cannot See landed a PGA nomination! The show’s only sign of strength is with actors, which is especially flimsy when shows like The Penguin and Disclaimer managed more SAG nominations than it. At the moment, I just don’t see this show getting in. I would love to see a nomination for the excellent Cooper Koch, though. 

Dying for Sex

At the moment, this is my current Limited Series lineup:

1. Adolescence

2. The Penguin

3. Dying for Sex

4. Say Nothing

5. Disclaimer