Who Will, Could, and Should Win at the 2025 Golden Globes - Film

Will Win - The Brutalist

Could Win - Conclave

Amy’s Should Win - Nickel Boys

Emil’s Should Win - Dune: Part Two

The frontrunner in this category happens to be the widely predicted runner-up at the Oscars: Brady Corbet’s groundbreaking The Brutalist. Though the film has shown signs of weakness at American guilds, we see no reason to doubt it at the Golden Globes when it effectively got every nomination it could have. If The Brutalist loses Drama Actor or Director, though, the tensely thrilling Conclave is an undeniable contender as its only real miss was Tucci in Supporting Actor. Nickel Boys is unlikely to win due to this being its sole nomination, but it is worth noting that RaMell Ross’s equal parts jaw-dropping and heartbreaking sophomore film deserves any awards it can get. And while Dune: Part Two had the shock miss of Denis Villeneuve in Director, that should not take away from how much of a cinematic achievement it was this year. 

Will Win - Anora

Could Win - Emilia Pérez

Amy’s Should Win - A Real Pain

Emil’s Should Win - Anora

In Musical/Comedy, however, we have much more of a race. The audacious Emilia Pérez landed the most nominations of any film competing in this category ever, though two of those were song nominations. The nods for Selena Gomez in Supporting Actress and Screenplay, two of the more contentious elements of the film, demonstrate an immense amount of passion for it. Yet it is going head to head with Sean Baker’s dazzling masterpiece Anora, the Palme d’Or winner and current Best Picture frontrunner. Anora may have less nominations than Emilia Pérez, but it also got everything it realistically could have. And when looking back on the past few films that have been awarded, Anora fits far more with The Banshees of Inisherin and Poor Things than Emilia Pérez does. It also looks like the frontrunner in Comedy Actress and Screenplay (spoilers!), so the potential winning package for Anora just makes more sense. A Real Pain has virtually no chance of winning this category, but this deeply tender film could deservingly take home a Golden Globe for one (or both!) of its actors.

Will Win - The Wild Robot

Could Win - Flow

Amy’s Should Win - Flow

Emil’s Should Win - Memoir of a Snail

The Wild Robot has the most Golden Globe nominations of any animated film ever and is currently leading in critics groups. Though Flow has put up a good fight thus far, we have a feeling that this is when The Wild Robot’s sweep begins. However, this is the same body that awarded The Boy and the Heron last year, so perhaps the Foreign part of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association pulls through? Memoir of a Snail is a lovely film with an outside chance, but realistically, The Wild Robot is taking this. 

Will Win - Emilia Pérez

Could Win - All We Imagine as Light

Amy’s Should Win - All We Imagine as Light

Emil’s Should Win - All We Imagine as Light

Emilia Pérez is the most nominated Comedy/Musical film ever at the Golden Globes. It is locked for a Best Picture nomination. It is winning this category. All We Imagine as Light is fantastic, however, and Payal Kapadia works miracles with her visual storytelling. In a perfect world, it would be a much bigger contender. 

Will Win - Nicole Kidman

Could Win - Angelina Jolie

Amy’s Should Win - Nicole Kidman

Emil’s Should Win - Nicole Kidman

Yes, a lot of people are predicting Angelina Jolie for this award. But the fact that she missed the BAFTA longlist and that the Golden Globes have never gone for Larraín biopic performances that were more acclaimed and beloved makes us highly doubt she takes this. In fact, we predict a repeat of Venice, where Nicole Kidman beats her out for the coveted Best Actress award. Nicole Kidman gives a daring performance and continues to find new ways to invent herself as an actress at this stage of her career. With her Volpi Cup, her BAFTA longlist, her AACTA nomination, and her LFCA nomination, she seems to have the most international support of any nominee in this category. Plus, Nicole Kidman is a 6-time Golden Globe winner (though one of those was for producing Big Little Lies). She can surely add another trophy to her collection.

Will Win - Adrien Brody

Could Win - Timothée Chalamet

Amy’s Should Win - Adrien Brody

Emil’s Should Win - Ralph Fiennes

Adrien Brody is giving the performance of the decade in The Brutalist, so if The Brutalist is winning Drama, it makes total sense for Brody to win this prize. It is very possible that he outright sweeps for this towering interpretation. That being said, Timothée Chalamet could upset for his transformation into Bob Dylan in the sensation that is A Complete Unknown. And while Brody and Chalamet are masterful, it would be lovely if Fiennes’s nuanced work in Conclave earned recognition.

Will Win - Mikey Madison

Could Win - Demi Moore

Amy’s Should Win - Demi Moore

Emil’s Should Win - Mikey Madison

There are also theoretically 4 different people who could win this category: Mikey Madison, Demi Moore, Karla Sofía Gascón, and Cynthia Erivo. However, Mikey Madison has been dominating critics’ groups thus far and quite simply is Anora. If Anora wins Musical/Comedy, it’s hard to see her starmaking performance not being a part of its package. The same can be said for Karla Sofía Gascón, who quite simply is Emilia Pérez. Honestly, I do think whatever film wins Musical/Comedy will win Actress as well because aside from A Real Pain, each film nominated is led by a woman. But if there is a split, I think it could be Demi Moore, who is the biggest movie star in the category and has a hell of a narrative to win for this commentary on society’s perception of celebrities.

Will Win - Hugh Grant

Could Win - Glen Powell

Amy’s Should Win - Jesse Eisenberg

Emil’s Should Win - Sebastian Stan

Though this category seemed difficult a few weeks ago, as any of Hugh Grant, Glen Powell, Jesse Eisenberg, and Sebastian Stan could theoretically eke out a win, Hugh Grant seems to have emerged ahead of the rest as the only actor actually in Oscar contention. He landed a Critics’ Choice nomination and a BAFTA longlist mention, which no one else in this category can claim. He is very enjoyable in Heretic, so despite being in a horror film, his acclaim for this performance makes complete sense. Glen Powell is extremely charming in Netflix hit Hit Man and has had a fantastic year, so an outright win is not off the table. Jesse Eisenberg gives a very empathetic and anxious performance in A Real Pain and has the advantage of being in the only film that got multiple Golden Globes nominations, but unfortunately people aren’t recognizing this performance as much as they should. Sebastian Stan has the most difficult role of the bunch in A Different Man and is simply brilliant, but the nomination feels like the win here. 

Will Win - Zoe Saldaña

Could Win - Ariana Grande

Amy’s Should Win - Margaret Qualley

Emil’s Should Win - Margaret Qualley

Zoe Saldaña is acclaimed for her role in Emilia Pérez, and the scene that is essentially her Oscar clip was nominated in Best Song. She faces stiff competition in Ariana Grande, who is a delight as Galinda, but we have doubts that Wicked is as beloved overseas as it is in America. Emilia Pérez, however, has proven international appeal with its 2 Cannes prizes, EFA sweep, and 15 BAFTA longlist mentions. Margaret Qualley is ruthless and deeply compelling in The Substance, and if the film overperforms here, she could also come along for the ride. These three actresses are all relatively close for critics’ group wins, so we would not be surprised if any of them eventually took home the prize.

Will Win - Kieran Culkin

Could Win - Guy Pearce

Amy’s Should Win - Kieran Culkin

Emil’s Should Win - Kieran Culkin 

Kieran Culkin is a bit of a Golden Globes darling, with 6 nominations total and 1 win for Succession. He is a force of nature in A Real Pain and has rightfully been leading this category in wins. Though Guy Pearce is incredibly showy in The Brutalist and is a certain threat for the Oscar, we feel confident in having Kieran Culkin win here.

Will Win - Brady Corbet

Could Win - Sean Baker

Amy’s Should Win - Brady Corbet

Emil’s Should Win - Sean Baker

Brady Corbet’s direction in The Brutalist has to be seen to be believed, and if The Brutalist is winning Drama, we do not see why his sweeping work for it would not win too. Sean Baker is a possibility for Anora, whose vision for every setpiece is a large reason why the Palme d’Or winner hits so hard both comedically and dramatically. That being said, if Brady Corbet is really winning the Director Oscar, this seems like a logical first place for him to be awarded.

Will Win - Anora

Could Win - Conclave

Amy’s Should Win - A Real Pain

Emil’s Should Win - Anora

Anora’s script is its best attribute, and it may be the most acclaimed screenplay of the year. At the very least, it is so far the most awarded screenplay of the year. If Anora is as strong of a film as we think it is, it should have no trouble winning this category — especially given the Globes’s proclivity for awarding original screenplays. That being said, we do have our eyes on Conclave and The Substance. Conclave has a flashy script with many twists and turners, while The Substance satirizes beauty standards brutally and won Screenplay at Cannes.

Will Win - The Brutalist

Could Win - Conclave

Amy’s Should Win - The Brutalist

Emil’s Should Win - The Brutalist

There are many great scores in contention. That being said, please listen to Overture (Ship) if you have any question as to what film is winning this category. 

Will Win - “El Mal”

Could Win - “Kiss the Sky”

Amy’s Should Win - El Mal

Emil’s Should Win - Mi Camino

“El Mal” is the musical number centerpiece of Emilia Pérez, a film the Golden Globes clearly adored. It is the clear frontrunner, though The Wild Robot’s “Kiss the Sky” could benefit from a votesplit between “El Mal” and “Mi Camino”. “Mi Camino” is a great song in its own right, and Selena Gomez’s starpower could also propel it towards a win. 

Will Win - Wicked

Could Win - Deadpool & Wolverine

Amy’s Should Win - I truly do not care

Emil’s Should Win - Wicked

Is this category worth putting all that much thought into? Debatable. Wicked got a Comedy/Musical nomination and it is a bona fide phenomenon. That’s probably the winner.